The 'Network of Experts' (BMDV-Expertennetzwerk) of the German Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV) is a network of German government agencies. Their main topic is the future-oriented transition of the transportation infrastructure in Germany. Currently six topic areas are addressed. One of these topic areas (“renewable energies”) has its focus on the assessment of the potential contribution of renewable energies along the transportation infrastructure in Germany (esp. along highways and railways). Germany’s national meteorological service DWD coordinates the topic area and is responsible for provision of climatological data in support of the assessments of the potential energy generation. The assessments also benefit from the expertise of the partners for the specific modes of transport, esp. the Federal Highway Research Institute (Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen, BASt) and the Federal Railway Authority (Eisenbahn Bundesamt (EBA) / Deutsches Zentrum für Schienenverkehrsforschung (DZSF)).

One option to use renewable energies along the transport infrastructure is the installation of photovoltaic on noise protection facilities. In one prominent study of the BMDV ‘Network of Experts’, the possible yields along already existing noise protection facilities along highways and railways in Germany were calculated on the basis of satellite-derived surface radiation data (dataset: SARAH-2; DOI:10.5676/EUM_SAF_CM/SARAH/V002_01), in combination with temperature and wind speed data of the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 (DOI:10.1002/qj.2486). This resulted in a possible installable capacity of approx. 1500 MW_p and a potential annual electricity production of about 1400 GWh, avoiding about 1 million tonnes of CO₂ annually. The area on the noise protection facilities theoretically occupiable with PV modules was conservatively estimated considering statics, noise protection properties, or shading. For vertical noise barriers and steep embankments, the occupiable area is estimated to be approx. ~10 %, while for dyke-like noise barriers with sloping surface (of ~30°) is estimated by the experts to ~50 %. For such noise barriers the largest potential for electricity production is estimated: 80 % of the installable capacity and 85 % of the potential yield can be attributed to these noise barriers. Recent political discussions on energy generation along transport routes have led to repeated media interest in these results. The use case illustrates the benefit of satellite and reanalysis data for large-scale energy studies. Studies on the quality of these climate data sets are also carried out in the Network of Experts.

In addition to the generation of renewable energy through photovoltaics, the installation of small wind turbines and the use of geothermal energy for heat generation on road and rail transport modes were investigated. While geothermal energy is used in some pilot studies and can lead to road salt reduction, small wind turbines can contribute to a continuous year-round energy supply in interaction with photovoltaics on a site-specific basis.

How to cite: Bär, F., Kaspar, F., Auerbach, M., Rieck, D., and Streek, P.: Potential of renewable energies along the German transport infrastructure, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-549, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-549, 2023.

In a fast-changing global economy, possessing knowledge and skills plays a crucial role in determining individual, institutional, and societal competitiveness and the capacity to drive innovation. The FAIR Micromet Portal FMP2.0  (Roantree et al., 2023;  denoted as FKP) and CA20108 FAIRNESS network aim to enhance transferable skills in measurement planning and implementation challenges (creative thinking and problem-solving) and interdisciplinary approaches (the ability to combine work across different fields), with the expectation of improved outcomes.

These skills are highly valued by employers and in great demand in the labor market, making them important drivers of individual career development. However, there often exists a significant diversity among Ph.D. students and new employees (young researchers) regarding functional knowledge and skills, which may result in certain gaps. Identifying whether these gaps relate to soft, hard, or transferable knowledge and skills is essential. A lack of transferable skills can significantly hinder further career development. To address this issue, we have designed a transferrable skills questionnaire to help young researchers and experts assess their transferable skills related to micrometeorological measurements and decide which ones to enhance. The selected skills include micrometeorological instrumentation (principles of work, selection and installation), experiment design (designing micrometeorological measurements in rural and urban areas; anticipating and overcoming the most frequent issues; data and metadata selection), data assimilation (managing different data formats and units), critical control (quality control; identifying different data gaps in micrometeorological data and metadata), and gap filling (different methodologies in filling gaps in data and metadata).

In this study, we present the results of the self-assessment of the first hundred participants.

Literature

Roantree, M., Lalic, B., Savic, S., Milosevic, D., and Scriney, M., 2023: Constructing a Searchable Knowledge Repository for FAIR Climate Data, EGU General Assembly2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7786. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7786.

How to cite: Lalic, B. and Firanj Sremac, A.: Micrometeorological measurements and data management as transferrable skills, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-569, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-569, 2023.

Thermal indices are valuable tools for assessing thermal environments linked to applications related to architecture, planning, tourism, energy conservation and health. They combine meteorological variables into a single value which can be assigned to a category of an assessment scale expressing the predicted degree of human thermal discomfort, sensation or stress. The assessment scales include one indifference (neutral) category and negative and/or positive categories of increasing intensity of thermal feeling. The numerous indices that have been developed makes the selection of a suitable one for a specific application a complex issue. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of several commonly used thermal indices for their operational use in weather applications in the Mediterranean climate of Greece. Hourly data (2010-2021) of air temperature (Tair, ^oC), relative humidity (Rh, %), wind speed (WS, m/s) and global solar radiation (SR, W/m²) recorded in 15 weather stations across the Athens metropolitan area of the Automatic Weather Stations Network of the National Observatory of Athens were used to calculate the indices. The indices should follow the following criteria: (a) be currently in common use, (b) be easily estimated operationally, i.e., short estimation time using Tair, Rh, WS and SR, and (c) provide exploitable results. Apparent temperature (AT), Heat Index (HI), Humidex (HU), Normal Effective Temperature (NET), Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET), Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) and Wind Chill Index (WCI) were identified as the most commonly used thermal indices in research and by weather services around the world. PET showed the highest computational demand compared to the other indices. At the first step, NET, PET and UTCI were assessed as more suitable for the climate of Athens (compared to AT, HI, HU, WBGT and WCI), extending their predictions to the entire range of their assessment scales. NET and PET tended to classify more often than UTCI thermal conditions in the negative categories of their assessment scales (67.8%-NET and 62.1%-PET versus 36.8%-UTCI; p<0.001) while most of UTCI values were classified in the neutral category (48.9%-UTCI versus 15.6%-NET and 15.1%-PET; p<0.001). Finally, more heat wave days were classified in accordance to Tair by NET (86.8%) and UTCI (84.5%) compared to PET (70.5%; p=0.014). According to the results of this study, NET and UTCI could be suggested as the best candidate indices for operational use in the climate of Athens, Greece.

How to cite: Pantavou, K., Lagouvardos, K., and Kotroni, V.: Assessment of thermal indices for the operational evaluation of thermal conditions in Athens, Greece, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-48, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-48, 2023.

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report estimates that the global mean temperature increase will be up to 5.4°C. One of the most affected areas globally is the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME), a wide and highly diverse region, identified as a hotspot that is warming twice as fast compared to the global increase. Climate change, in conjunction with poor air quality are two key factors impacting human health. In this work, we use flexible statistical modeling approaches to quantify the joint effect of temperature, humidity and air quality on human mortality for the city of Thessaloniki in Greece. In this work we briefly expose the statistical methodology we propose, and how it was used to quantify the joint effects of temperature, humidity and air quality over prolonged periods of exposure, on human mortality.

More specifically, we utilize data on all-cause but also cause-specific daily mortality and model this as a function of temperature, humidity, ozone, PM₁₀ and nitrogen dioxide – all measured from monitoring stations in Thessaloniki. We implement the well-established framework of Distributed Lag Models (DLMs) as Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), to capture the complex interactions between the aforementioned exposures on the risk of mortality. Such models capture the exposure effect through time and thus enable understanding into how prolonged periods of poor air quality and heat stress affect human health. Results confirm the intuition that exposure to extreme heat and humidity in conjunction with poor air quality significantly increases the risk of mortality. This increase in risk varies considerably by case-of-death and also by age group. We show how the type of air pollutant results in different risk profiles, but also that there are correlations across the pollutants that affect the risks.

How to cite: Economou, T., Parliari, D., and Kushta, J.: Using statistical approaches to quantify the synergy of heat stress and air pollution on human mortality for a Mediterranean city, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-69, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-69, 2023.

A more accurate understanding of climate and its changes requires temporally and spatially representative climate databases. However, measurement conditions change frequently: relocation of stations, instrument changes, changes in measurement time, changes in environmental conditions can all cause inhomogeneities in the data series, and therefore homogenization is needed.

For homogenization of data series, quality control and filling in the missing values we use the MASH (Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization) procedure (MASHv3.03 software) at the Climate Department of the Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ). Inhomogeneities are estimated using monthly data series. Monthly, seasonal and annual inhomogeneities are harmonized in all MASH systems, constructed for homogenization of various station systems which consist of stations with different length of data. After homogenization, we have temporally representative data series.

However, weather stations are not evenly distributed, the station network consists of both densely and sparsely covered subregions. In order to estimate the values of meteorological variables at points where no measurements are available, a spatial interpolation method must be used. Our gridded climate datasets are generated using the MISH method (MISHv1.03 software). After interpolation, we have spatially representative climate database.

Currently, the start of the Hungarian precipitation climate database is 1901, but the beginning of regular precipitation measurements started decades earlier, so it is possible to extend the precipitation database in time. In addition, the 131 datasets from the first half of the 20th century that are currently used can be significantly extended, as there are still many undigitized datasets before the 1950s. The collection of monthly precipitation data stored still on paper made it possible to use many more stations from the first half of the 20th century than before, and thus, the precipitation patterns in Hungary in the second half of the 19th century can be analyzed.

In this poster presentation, we will present the new precipitation station systems used for homogenization, the most important verification statistics of the homogenization of precipitation data series, and analyze the gridded spatial means (national averages for Hungary) from the beginning of the measurements to the present.

Acknowledgements:

The research presented was carried out within the framework of the Széchenyi Plan Plus program with the support RRF 2.3.1 21 2022 00008 project.

How to cite: Szentes, O., Lakatos, M., and Pongrácz, R.: Long-term homogenized and gridded precipitation data for Hungary, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-376, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-376, 2023.

The recurrence of upper-level synoptic-scale Rossby wave packets (RRWPs) at a location over a short period can lead to persistent surface weather that may drive extreme weather events. RRWPs were observed during several extreme weather events, for example, the 2010 heatwave over Russia, the 2004 and 2009 south-eastern Australian heatwaves, and the anomalous western European precipitation of 1983. RRWPs have been shown to lengthen hot, cold, dry and wet spells across the globe.

Motivated by the importance of RRWPs, this work investigates the causal drivers of RRWPs in the North Atlantic basin for summer and winter in a two-step approach. First, composite maps of top-30 RRWP events during 1979 – 2018 are used to study the characteristics of RRWP events and identify potential drivers using ERA-5 reanalysis data. The potential drivers are shortlisted following statistical significance in a bootstrapping approach. Subsequently, the causality of the shortlisted drivers is assessed using a Bayesian causal network (CN) framework for time series.

Composite maps reveal that RRWP events have a preferred seasonal phase configuration despite not having an explicit condition for phasing in the event selection. In winter, wavenumbers 3, 4 and 5 dominate with a hemisphere-wide wave pattern, whereas wavenumbers 5, 6 and 7 dominate in summer without a hemisphere-wide wave pattern. The causal networks reveal that local changes in atmospheric blocking and low wavenumber flow, termed background flow, are major drivers of RRWPs. RRWPs also have a feedback effect on background flow and blocks. The tropical-extratropical causal link only exists in winter and is indirect, mediated by the changes in the background flow over the Pacific. The causal drivers outlined in this study help to further the understanding of RRWPs.

How to cite: Ali, M., Martius, O., Röthlisberger, M., Methven, J., and Zscheischler, J.: Causal drivers of Recurrent Rossby Wave Packets, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-189, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-189, 2023.

Droughts and floods are the most hazardous disasters to affect the landscape and human communities. Climate change is increasing their frequency and intensity all around the world. In this research, we study the impact that climate change in central Poland (Toruń) is having on the frequency of meteorological droughts and risk of floods occurrence in the region, based on the standardised precipitation index (SPI) as one of the most common and effective indices. Although the SPI was developed for monitoring droughts, previous studies have shown that it can also be applied to recognise wet and normal conditions. Therefore, in this study, we attempt to determine the relationship between SPI values and high flood risk. First, by an average mean ensemble of several general circulation models (GCMs), precipitation for a future period (2026–2100) in Toruń was projected under two climate change socio-economic pathway scenarios (SSPs), SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. Then, based on the projected precipitation for the future period, the SPI values were calculated. The results indicated that, in general, the precipitation in the study area will increase for scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5.

Estimation of future meteorological drought based on SPI calculation showed that the frequency of the “Extremely dry” (SPI ≤ ˗2.0) and “Severely dry” (˗1.50 ≤ SPI < ˗2.0) categories will decrease under scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, while the frequency of the “Moderately dry” category (˗1.0 ≤ SPI < ˗1.50) will increase for scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 relative to the historical reference period (1991–2014).

Estimation of flood risk occurrences in the future period based on SPI values showed that the frequency of “Extremely wet” (SPI ≥ 2.0) will increase for SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, excluding the future periods 2076–2100 in SSP1-2.6 and 2026–2050 for SSP5-8.5. The frequency of “Very wet” (1.50 ≤ SPI < 2.00) will increase for both scenarios. It is also expected that frequencies of other categories including “Moderately wet” (1.00 ≤ SPI < 1.50), and “Near normal” (˗0.99 ≤ SPI <1) will slightly decrease for both scenarios.

To conclude, a decrease in the frequency of “Extremely dry” and “Severely dry” categories and an increase in the frequency of “Extremely wet” and “Very wet” showed that the occurrence of floods is more probable than droughts in the study area in the future period.

The work was supported by the National Science Centre, Poland project No. 2020/37/B/ST10/00710.

How to cite: Ghazi, B., Przybylak, R., and Pospieszyńska, A.: Estimation of droughts and floods occurrences in central Poland under climate change scenarios, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-91, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-91, 2023.

Monitoring near-surface winds near coastal areas is really important since it affects not only the population living nearby but also the energetic sector, such as oil and wind power industries. As an effort to understand the future wind trends in a changing climate, this study presents results from the project Western South Atlantic Climate Experiment for the middle of the century (2031 to 2060); here, future projections of near-surface winds and their extremes over the western South Atlantic are evaluated from regional dynamic downscaling by using two distinct models (WRF and RegCM4) forced by two global climate models (HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR) under the worse RCP8.5 warming scenario. In general, the trends show a slight decrease of 0.1 to 0.3 m/s in the mean wind speed for both models over the southwestern South Atlantic adjacent to the continent (between 25º and 35ºS in RegCM4 and 15º and 25ºS in WRF). For the extremes the decrease is amplified, reaching 0.5 m/s; the only exception occurs for WRF forced by HadGEM2, in which there is no trend signal southern 25ºS. For the present climate, WRF and RegCM4 have opposite wind speed biases over the South Atlantic, which propagates to the ocean waves simulation, especially for the extremes. Therefore, in order to reduce the bias propagation, an adjustment of the upper-quantiles of the wind speed (i.e. the extremes) was applied to the present climate simulated winds, which showed an improvement for intense wind speeds. After bias corrections, the future trends of wind speed are also explored.

How to cite: Machado Crespo, N., Pillar da Silva, N., de Camargo, R., and Porfírio da Rocha, R.: Future trends of near-surface winds over the southwestern South Atlantic in two regional climate models, EMS Annual Meeting 2023, Bratislava, Slovakia, 4–8 Sep 2023, EMS2023-469, https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-469, 2023.